Eric Olson is the Chairman of the Region Forward Coalition (RFC) and Vice Chair of the Prince George’s County Council

Frank Principi is the Chairman of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) and serves on the Prince William County Board of Supervisors

Q: Do you think this regional level of focus is key to Region Forward’s success?

A: (Olson) The key to achieving our goals for the metropolitan Washington region as a whole is that we must work collaboratively across our jurisdictions to create high levels of synergy, employment, education, economic and environmental sustainability, and transportation integration. These will not happen in silos. Our residents live their lives across our jurisdictional borders, and not just from the suburbs into the downtown core, but across all our lines. Our economy is regional and is competing with metropolitan areas across the nation and across the globe. We will only succeed as a vibrant region when all of its constituent parts realize the benefits of success.

A: (Principi) Right now, inner jurisdictions like D.C. and Arlington may be significantly outperforming the outer suburbs toward a target like the overall share of bicycle trips. At the same time, these jurisdictions may be limited in their ability to preserve green space. That’s why it is important for us to keep a regional perspective as we evaluate our progress toward our Region Forward goals.

However, I believe that for most of our goals and targets, all 22 of our local cities and counties will be able to make significant contributions. While we have our different geographies and development histories, we are now seeing properly planned, intelligently designed developments spring up all over our region. That’s no accident. These developments, which are based on smart growth principles, work well and are highly sought after. In Prince William County, examples include the three transit-oriented town centers of Potomac Town Center, Belmont Bay, and North Woodbridge.

For example, North Woodbridge improvements will leverage high-speed passenger ferry service on the Occoquan and Potomac Rivers, Virginia Railway Express (VRE), the recently funded widening of Route 1, and the recent widening of Interstate 95, including the slug and future toll lanes. These developments in our county and across the region increase transit use, add housing choices, and spur new business creation, which in turn, will help us as a region move the needle closer to our goals.

Virginia Railway Express

Q: With many targets measuring impacts far into the future, are trend lines the primary indicators of progress?

A: (Olson) Achieving our goals as a region is an ongoing process. We have seen tremendous growth and success in the last decade in parts of our region, and many areas are virtually unrecognizable from the places they were four decades ago. The key to planning a 40-year future that includes a resilient economy, a stronger workforce, a smaller carbon footprint, and healthy, walkable neighborhoods, is ensuring that progress is constantly being made, and having regular regional assessments of our benchmarks.

If we are not creating greater equity for our region’s residents, if disparities grow, and if we are growing farther apart, we will need to change our approach. But I believe today’s elected officials are committed to our region as a whole and that we will succeed in our bold effort to create a stronger set of benchmarks for our overall regional progress.

As gas prices continue drain folks’ wallets and with the DC area having some of the nation’s worst traffic, a great deal of the public understands that having a strong public transportation system, walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods, and access to nearby jobs are important for a vibrant community.  I believe our local officials in the region have a good understanding of the need for such communities as well. We need to make sure, therefore, that those are the types of places we’re creating.

Q: As Chair of the COG Board, how do your priorities for the region in 2012 align with the goals and targets of Region Forward? Are there certain areas within the plan that you would like to focus on in during your leadership?

A: (Principi) The economy. At first, when people talked about this recession, they focused mostly on the protective bubble the federal government has provided our region. Even though area residents were struggling and unemployment numbers were increasing, our region was still doing better than almost any other part of the country. In recent months, however, the conversation has shifted. This was spurred in part by the huge automatic spending cuts that will be imposed as a result of the failure of the Congressional Supercommittee. If not prevented, these cuts will have a massively negative impact on the region’s economy.

In addition to the economy, transportation is a perennial issue in metropolitan Washington and that will be no different this year. I’ll work with this year’s Transportation Planning Board (TPB) Chairman Todd Turner to push our region’s transportation needs to the forefront of the agenda.

Q: The region has benefited from the protective bubble that the federal government’s presence has provided and has performed relatively well economically over the past few years. As that protective bubble becomes less certain (with likely reduced federal spending and employment), how can Region Forward help the region proactively prepare for this transition?

A: (Olson) As a coalition of officials representing our metropolitan region, we have come together recognizing that we must work closer together to plan for our collective future, particularly in less certain economic times. This will mean seeking ways to ensure that there is more equity across our region, and across our economic groups, as we grow. We cannot be strong as a whole if significant parts of our population are falling behind in any of the four indicators. We should grow our green economy, technology, health care, and educational research sectors. We need to work from the strengths we have but also become a hub for future research and industry. We need to look at commerce in the years to come, and use our significant institutions of higher education to spin off new technologies and research that will fuel a new economy.

A: (Principi) Part of the initial Region Forward planning process involved a workshop that examined how drastic changes or “Big Moves” would affect the region. One of the four scenarios considered a major reduction of the federal government’s presence in the region. While we probably won’t see the nation’s capital move from D.C. to Kansas City, it is likely that the federal government’s current levels of spending and employment in the region will not be maintained. This year at the COG Board of Directors, we’re going to be incorporating that scenarios work into the creation of an Economic Growth and Competitiveness Plan for metropolitan Washington. This plan will be developed by the COG Board in coordination with the Region Forward Coalition and will move us closer to Region Forward’s goal of a diversified, stable, and competitive economy.

Q: Lastly, moving briefly from the regional to the local level, how do you see Region Forward benefitting your jurisdiction?

A: (Olson) As a Prince Georgian, I see the tremendous assets in my county – the 15 under-developed Metro stations, the University of Maryland, NASA-Goddard, the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Bowie State University, Joint Base Andrews, and more. I see the 60 percent of my County’s residents leaving Prince George’s daily to commute to work. I know that by focusing more jobs and investment on the eastern side of our region, that it will help alleviate traffic, it will create more of a balance in prosperity, and it will even create more reverse commutes, which can help stabilize WMATA by selling more Metro seats on trains that are currently empty traveling outbound.

By focusing on our overall regional goals, it will allow the eastern half of the metropolitan area to do more for the region in the long run, it will strengthen our overall workforce, our competitiveness among regions, and our place in the world.

Beltsville Agricultural Research Center

A: (Principi) For a fast-growing county like Prince William, all of the Region Forward goals are important.  Our residents want better transportation and housing choices, a clean environment, vibrant economy and safe communities. In the long term, according to forecasts by the Council of Governments, Prince William County will gain over 200,000 new residents between 2005 and 2040, an over 60% increase in our population. The goals and targets in Region Forward help focus us on better managing this growth into our activity centers and around our transit stations.

Region Forward also challenges us to think boldly about our big challenges. For example, to meet our Accessibility goals to reduce vehicle miles traveled and better connect our region’s activity centers, I have been a strong proponent of high-speed ferry service along the Potomac River from Woodbridge, VA to Washington, DC. I’ve also been involved in the early discussions examining the feasibility of extending Metrorail from Springfield to Woodbridge. I think we must stay committed to working across our jurisdictional borders and identifying the big ideas that will shape a better future for all residents of the D.C. region.

Housing in metro Washington can be an extremely frustrating subject, given the region’s exorbitant costs. For many folks that cost becomes simply too much to bear. In the direst cases, this can result in temporary or permanent homelessness.

The Homelessness Resource Center and the National Coalition for the Homeless both attribute the related factors of dwindling affordable housing supply and rapidly rising housing prices in urban areas in the U.S. as principal drivers of homelessness. There are, of course, several other factors that contribute to homelessness, including issues involving mental health, substance abuse, unemployment, domestic violence, etc.

The overall rate of homelessness in metro Washington has remained fairly stable the past few years, a sign of the region’s relative economic strength compared to the rest of the country during the recent recession.

However, ending homelessness, not keeping it constant, should remain the target. And some troubling trends have also emerged in metro Washington – such as the increase in families who are homeless – which should keep the pressure on leaders and communities to focus on ending homelessness.

Every year, MWCOG organizes a point-in-time count of the entire region’s homeless population to highlight the overall figures and specific trends of the population (read last year’s report here). Last year, this blog featured the reactions of two housing planners who took part in the count, recounting what they saw and how they felt (search “Reactions” here on Region Forward).

This year, we are sharing participant reaction again. The following is a portion of Michelle Albert’s recounting of the experience (Albert serves as the Homeless Outreach and PATH Coordinator for the city of Alexandria):

In Alexandria, the point-in-time outreach volunteers represent a cross section of the larger community. This year, 34 volunteers worked across four 4-hour shifts. Thirty-one volunteers assisted with outreach and another 3 organized materials and set up food and incentive items. The 34 volunteers consisted of 14 DCHS employees, 7 police officers, 4 Sheriff’s Deputies, and 9 members of the community. Officers and deputies drove teams of civilian volunteers to designated locations and utilized their knowledge of the community to locate homeless individuals.

Three-to-four person teams began outreach efforts at 4 pm January 25 and worked through the night until 8 am January 26. Teams searched approximately 50 pre-identified locations and continued searching additional locations at their discretion, again utilizing law enforcement’s and social workers’ knowledge of the community. Preliminary results indicate that approximately 20 unsheltered individuals were located in Alexandria, down from 31 people in January 2011. Records from the 2011 count indicate that at least five of the individuals counted last year are now sheltered and therefore they are not part of this year’s count.

During the count, teams distributed food, clothing, blankets, sleeping bags and toiletries. Generous financial and in-kind donations from local businesses, shelters, Alexandria Detox and the faith-based community made this possible. Of special note, the city’s outreach activities resulted in shelter and services being provided to a 70-year-old Marine Veteran who had been living in a tent near Potomac Yards after having a stroke in October 2011.

Participating in the point-in-time count provides volunteers with education as well as chance to help individuals and families experiencing homelessness. In addition, it allows law enforcement to be ‘the good guys’ who give out sandwiches and sleeping bags instead of tickets and trespassing notices. As a result, people experiencing homelessness are more likely to be cooperative during any future contact. As more people volunteer to assist with the outreach portion of the count, awareness increases, information is spread, and education is provided which allows the community to develop a more mindful approach to addressing the issues surrounding homelessness.

While much of that narrative certainly remains true, over the past few months a new discussion has also developed, one that is focused on the regional economy’s reliance on the federal government. Given that federal spending is poised to decline in relative terms, the very sector that shielded the Washington area economy may soon become its vulnerability.

The current state of affairs in Detroit, with its high unemployment and poverty rates, is an example of what can happen when a region relies too heavily on any single industry. No one is predicting that federal spending and hiring will drop off as precipitously as did the American auto industry, however, Detroit’s apparent lack of preparedness for the decline of its central economic force provides for a powerful incentive for other regions to be proactive.

A proactive metropolitan Washington is exactly what the new MWCOG Chairman Frank Principi seems to have in mind. In a commentary for Capital Business, Principi outlines how he plans to use his year at the helm of the regional organization to develop an Economic Growth & Competitiveness Plan for Metropolitan Washington.

The Washington Post’s Steven Pearlstein, who has been at the forefront of this discussion with a series of columns on the need for the region to diversify its economy, recently spoke to the Region Forward Coalition about this and other issues as they continue to work on implementing the Region Forward plan.

A few of the themes that Pearlstein focused on included the ongoing needs in metro Washington for more affordable housing and more regional cooperation.

Noting that exurban sprawl is both a symptom and cause of our high-cost region, Pearlstein singled out high housing costs as a particular concern. Referencing a recent study on the region’s severe shortfall of housing necessary for the region’s future workforce, Pearlstein noted that high housing costs contribute to increased prices of other goods and services produced in the region which ultimately hurts our competitiveness.

Also, quipping that “treating the Potomac River like the Potomac Ocean is silly,” Pearlstein encouraged the region’s leaders to continue to pursue increased cooperation, especially in terms of economic development. Taking the potential relocation of the FBI from the District to the suburbs as an example, Pearlstein noted that this opportunity seems ripe for Prince George’s County and its goal of increasing development near its Metro stations and that other jurisdictions should support the County’s bid, not compete with it.

And it’s not just our ever-expanding waist lines that cause problems. As noted this week in The Chronicle of Higher Education, additional negative health consequences of sprawl include “asthma caused by particulates from cars and trucks, water contamination from excessive runoff, lead poisoning from contaminated houses and soil, and depression exacerbated by stressful living conditions, long commutes, and a lack of access to fresh food.”

That’s quite a list; however, there are a couple of points of good news. First, this issue is starting to get more public attention – PBS is running a 4-hour series called “Designing Healthy Communities” to highlight the association between land-use and health. Secondly, this is one health issue in which the solution is easy to identify: we simply need to design our cities and towns better. Good urban design can reduce the health disparities that exist in our region.

What does that design look like? Walkable, bikeable communities in which folks can get to many of their daily destinations without having to sit in a car. It’s telling that the cities with the highest rates of walking and bicycling – the District of Columbia is now ranked second! – also tend to find themselves atop “healthiest cities” rankings.

The development of walkable and bikeable communities requires – in addition to the immediate on-the-ground improvements like bike lanes and sidewalks – transit, mixed-use development, and density. In other words, they require urbanism. Seeing as suburban areas continue to grow throughout the region and the country, it’s good news for health that urbanism is no longer the sole domain of central cities, as DC’s neighbors are proving.

(For the most-read posts from the first half of 2011, read these three editions of The Smorgasbord: one, two, and three)

Not enough housing. Not the right housing. Stephen Fuller and Lisa Sturtevant of the GMU Center for Regional Analysis blog about their findings which show that the region is not producing nearly enough housing and not the right type of housing to meet the needs of the future. As a follow up, regional planners suggest funneling future housing development near existing and planned transit. That’s the kind of housing people really want anyway.

PlanMaryland and Region Forward: Maryland Planning Secretary Richard Hall outlines how these two plans will help create a sustainable metro Washington region.

Moving on for a brief international perspective, rates of driving are down in Western countries (yay!), but before claiming victory, it’s important to note that they’re also increasing rapidly in emerging/developing countries. Our land-use decisions in the West definitely have an impact on climate change, but it will be the growth patterns of huge developing countries like India and China that really determine our climate future.

What’s the role for nation-states in an increasingly metro-driven economy? This post raises the provocative question: are today’s city-states becoming the dominant form of economic entity in the world?

Metro makes a “business case” for transit: In a three-part series, Justin Antos from WMATA summarizes key findings from a study that demonstrates the economic value that Metro brings to the region. Hint: it’s a lot. Part one, two, and three.

Stormwater management isn’t a sexy topic. It is, however, incredibly important economically and environmentally. Maintaining a balance between promoting development and improving water quality is an especially tricky task for a growing region like ours.

Sad, but true: Even if we completely stop emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, the emissions of the past 100 years will continue to generate climate change. It’s inevitable. This is simply a fact; it’s not an excuse for inaction. On the contrary, we should be working feverishly to dramatically reduce our emissions, a goal of Region Forward, in order to minimize further impacts. This two-part series outlines how the region can adapt to some of the effects of climate change. Part one and two.

Lessons for a growing, vibrant region from a struggling one: One may question whether recession-proof metro Washington really has anything to learn from the Detroit region. The answer: yes. A series of posts looked at an issue that the region will be confronting in the coming years: balancing the desire to maintain economic growth in light of likely reduced federal spending and employment. Detroit knows all too well how overreliance on one sector can leave you vulnerable. One promising area to focus on in economic diversification: clean energy efficiency. It makes business sense even if you happen to be one of those climate change deniers.

Sticking with the Motor City, two regional housing planners muse about their takeaways from a conference in Detroit focused on infusing equity concerns into various elements of urban planning, including housing, transportation, the environment, etc. Part one, two, three, and four.

In the meantime, there’s a few current news stories that focus on issues we’ve blogged about this year. We thought we’d share these stories for some additional perspective on these issues:

“Cities Face Tough Choices as U.S. Slashes Block Grants Program” This New York Times piece outlines the impacts that reduced Community Development Block Grants (CDBG) funding is having on cities and their residents. Back in April, when Congress was debating whether to cut CDBG funding, Alicia Lewis warned that short-sighted cuts would have very negative results for productivity and prosperity.

Good news and bad news for redevelopment in Southeast Washington, DC. Mayor Vince Gray’s economic development team is “wooing” Microsoft to build a campus at St. Elizabeths in SE Washington as part of the city’s revitalization efforts for the area. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is already confirmed to relocate its headquarters there, though it was recently announced that the DHS move would be delayed by 5 years. In April, regional planner John Mataya wrote about the efforts to build innovation cluster in SE Washington.

“[Indian] Government Plans New Urban Hubs Around Big Cities” This piece from The Times of India delineates some of the Indian government’s plans for handling its immense and rapidly growing urban population. India’s on track to overtake China as the most populous country in the world in the few decades, exactly at the same time that the world’s population is becoming majority urban for the first time in history. How countries like India and China manage their incredible growth is a key element in international efforts to combat climate change. If they manage it well, utilizing smart growth principles, they can emerge as leaders in this new urban world. If not, sprawl could proliferate on a scale that would make LA’s or DC’s traffic congestion pale in comparison.

The full impact of bag taxes. Montgomery County is set to implement its 5-cent tax on paper and plastic shopping bags beginning January 1, 2012. The move is aimed to reduce pollution and raise revenues and is modeled after the District’s bag tax that was introduced in 2010. While some have criticized the District’s tax for not raising enough revenue, back in May we encouraged people to consider the aims of the tax and to realize that lower revenues, in this case, is actually a sign of success.

Geoengineering – using technological solutions to modify the earth’s climate (or at least shield it from the effects of climate change) – is beginning to move from a somewhat fanciful theoretical concept to something we may actually have to consider, especially if the US and other major nations continue to drag their feet on emissions reductions. That’s a scary thought, given how little we know about what the side effects of geoengineering may be. Back in March we warned about the dangers of relying on technology alone to solve our climate problem.

That was the second time the blogosphere and twitterverse came through for us by finding some awesome talent for regionally-focused groups. Ready for round 3?

The Metropolitan Washington Air Quality Committee is recruiting new members for the Air and Climate Public Advisory Committee (ACPAC) for 2011. ACPAC advises on air quality, climate and energy, and environmental issues to several policy committees at MWCOG.

ACPAC represents diverse community interests and opinions and provides an opportunity to provide input to local leaders. Members represent communities across the region and come from a variety of backgrounds, such as the health, business, education, scientific, and environmental sectors.

Here’s some more details on ACPAC: It’s made up of 18 total members, six each from the District, Maryland, and Virginia. There are currently four spots open:  two for MD and one each for DC and VA.

Some of the topics upcoming in 2012 for ACPAC include providing input on the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board’s (TPB) Transportation Priorities Plan, the Climate Adaptation Guidebook for the metro Washington region, and the energy efficiency and sustainability outreach program currently under development.

Region Forward includes some very ambitious air quality and climate targets, like reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 and by 80% by 2050, as well as going above and beyond the federal standards for air quality. These targets are based on the science which says that these are the levels of emissions necessary to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Meeting these targets won’t be easy, and everyone – citizen, corporation, and politician – has to be involved. Here’s a chance for RF followers to do so.

If you want to have a say in the local public policy process and help the region meet the RF goals for air quality and greenhouse gas emissions, here’s your chance. Please fill out the online interest form today or contact Maia Davis for more information. ACPAC is recruiting members through January 15, 2012.

The Washington region often finds itself at the top of city rankings, for better or for worse. Just today, Richard Florida blogged at Atlantic Cities about how the DC area ranks the highest in the nation in terms of “economic advantage,” an index which includes “three measures of regional productivity and wealth: median household income, per capita income and average wages and salaries.”

On the other hand, we also often find ourselves sitting at or near the top of “most congested” rankings, with this year’s edition of the annual Texas Transportation Institute showing the DC region tied with Chicago as having the worst traffic congestion in the country.

Another area where metro Washington really needs to see some dramatic improvement is in relation to its rates of HIV/AIDS. Despite being the seventh largest region in terms of population, metro Washington has the third highest number of cumulative AIDS cases in the country. And it’s not just a problem in DC proper, 47% of the region’s AIDS cases are located outside the District of Columbia.

HIV/AIDS is, therefore, a regional epidemic. And lingering stigmas and misinformation are continuing to fuel the epidemic. Although the number of newly diagnosed AIDS cases in the region declined from 1,320 in 2006 to 842 in 2009, that’s still far too many. That’s why the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) and several other sponsors recently held a Regional HIV/AIDS Forum to devise a regional strategy to combat HIV/AIDS in metro Washington.

Jeffrey Crowley, Director of the Office of National AIDS Policy, was one of the speakers at the Forum and he emphasized President Obama’s commitment to fighting the virus, noting that even as other areas have experienced funding cuts, HIV/AIDS research and treatment has received increased funding during his administration. Crowley also noted that his office was in the process of creating the first National HIV/AIDS Strategy with the primary goals of reducing infections and increasing access to care and treatment for people with HIV/AIDS.

An expert panel including health officials from Montgomery, Prince George’s, and Fairfax Counties, and the District of Columbia discussed issues related to HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment in metro Washington. All of the speakers noted that stigma associated with the virus, by impeding treatment, remains a major barrier to reducing new HIV infections. They all also emphasized the fact that the virus knows no boundaries, reinforcing the regional nature of the epidemic.

There are, however, imbalances in how and the speed with which treatment occurs throughout the region. Dr. Mohammad N. Akhter, Director of the DC Department of Health indicated that Mayor Vincent Gray is working to bring President Obama into a Regional HIV/AIDS Strategy, modeled partly on the national strategy, which would start by performing a treatment and needs assessment as a region.

The forum, which was attended by 100+ experts, officials, and community members, was a first step towards building a regional strategy to combat the HIV/AIDS problem in metro Washington.

For more information about the regional HIV/AIDS strategy contact Carla Sanchez, a health planner at COG. Below is a clip from ABC 7 about the Forum:

One of the best ways to understand the value of something is to take it away, and measure the difference. So, as part of our “Business Case” for transit study, we tried taking away transit to see what happened to the Washington DC region, using MWCOG’s Regional Travel Demand Model.

This model represents people’s origins and destinations, and all the different options for getting around, including detailed transit and highway capacity information. What does that model predict would happen without transit?

This study measured transit’s impact on congestion, roads, and parking in the Washington region.

(Results shown here show the impact of all regional transit, including Metrorail, Metrobus, local/regional bus, MARC, and VRE services. Metro represents about three-quarters of regional passenger-miles traveled).

No Additional Roads: First, we looked at what would happen if everyone were able to respond to the loss of transit by choosing different destinations and travel patterns.  That is, transit is removed, no new roads are built, but people are allowed to choose to work and shop at different locations as a result of changing congestion.  In modeling terminology, we allowed the trip table to change. As a result:

Vehicle-miles traveled would increase by 7-8%;

Congestion would increase by 25% across the region.  Some people would notice little change in their commute, but some would spend a lot more time sitting in traffic – but on average, travelers would spend 25% more time in congestion;

The added time and fuel wasted in congestion would cost travelers over $1.5 billion annually;

Traffic worsens so that residents make many fewer trips across county and state boundaries, indicating that our regional economy becomes fragmented:

1. Workers have fewer job opportunities to choose from because many are too far from home. Employers have a smaller pool of employees to choose from.

2. More trips stay local. For example, trips from Maryland and Virginia to DC drop 5-11%, and trips between Maryland and Virginia in the Compact area drop by 12-19%

We fracture into several smaller regional economies, and lose the competitiveness of our regional economy.

The scenario shows that Metro plays a critical role in keeping the region moving forward.  Beyond diverting 7-8% of vehicle-miles traveled off the road, transit’s impact on congestion in Washington is several times greater than its current mode share.  Transit carries significant number of people at exactly the times and places when our roads are at capacity. Our region’s roads are so congested that even a little bit more traffic can cause instability and slow everyone down. Transit benefits many in the region, even those who have never set foot in a bus or train.

Additional roads that would be required without transit in the Washington region. Thicker lines indicate number of lanes required. Total pavement required would be roughly the equivalent of two additional Capital Beltways.

Build Additional Roads: Second, we looked at how much additional road and parking infrastructure we would need to handle the additional traffic if transit were not available.  In the model, we turned off transit, held travel patterns constant, and added lanes to each and every road in our network until every segment regained today’s levels of congestion.  The results:

The region would need over 1,000 lane-miles of new pavement, on freeways and arterial roads:

1. The equivalent of two additional Capital Beltways

2. Potomac and Anacostia River bridges would need 4-6 additional lanes each

Significant new road capacity would be required where expansion would be expensive and/or controversial, e.g. Constitution Avenue NW;

The cost to build the roads, excluding the cost of land, would total $6.7 billion (this number assumes greenfield construction costs, and excludes public and private operating costs);

We would need 200,000 additional parking spaces in the D.C. and Arlington core:

1. The equivalent of 166 city blocks of five-story parking garages

2. At a cost of $4.1 billion

These findings put Metro’s role in context – two Beltways’ worth of pavement, and blocks and blocks of parking downtown are a visual representation of Metro’s impact on the city.

Plans in the 1960s and 70s called for a highway through downtown Washington. Map adapted from “District of Columbia Interstate System 1971,” November 1971, De Leuw, Cather Associates and Harry Weese & Associates, Ltd.

“But That Would Never Happen!” Imagining a Washington without public transit is, of course, a hypothetical situation. Without transit, Washington would look very different than it does today. Land use patterns would be different. But to understand transit’s role in the region today, we must compare it to some other alternative – a counterfactual is a key part of economic impact analysis. Predicting the effects of removing public transit is a good way to understand the role that transit plays today, and helps inform future planning.

Also, the idea of a Washington blanketed with significant parking and highways may not be so far-fetched. Many American cities are home to substantial parking lots and highways today. In the 1960s and 70s, plans called for major highways through downtown Washington, such as the one at right.

In the end: While transit has helped us avoid auto congestion, roads, and parking, it has also had other impacts as well.  Transit has helped keep Washington moving and growing in a way that avoids significant roadway and parking infrastructure, has preserved valuable land for economic development, and has allowed our region to expand and compete as a single, connected economy.

Read the study’s Executive Summary (pdf).

Cross-posted at PlanItMetro

A Metrorail station can make the land surrounding the station much easier to get to and from. Especially if traffic is bad and parking is costly, as often happens in our region, a Metrorail station can offer a good alternative means of getting to and from an area, which gives the area near rail an advantage over areas farther from rail.

Businesses can locate near a Metrorail station and reach workers around the region, more people can live in the neighborhood and get around by transit, and customers can shop or run errands there. Economic theory tells us that the value of land around rail stations should reflect the value transit brings, as often does the density of development. Economists would say that the accessibility value of transit is capitalized into the land value.

To measure Metro’s impact on land markets, we analyzed property value assessment records across the region. Shown above is a sample from the District of Columbia.

But what is this effect around Metrorail stations, and how much is it worth?  How much land value is associated with Metrorail, and how much property tax revenue does this generate for Metro’s jurisdictions?

To answer, we analyzed parcel-level property assessment values across the WMATA Compact jurisdiction as part of our “Business Case” for transit study.  We analyzed all properties, including residential, commercial, and federal office buildings.  The data show that:

1. Metro enables value-creating activity: $235 billion of property value sits within a half-mile of Metrorail station

2. About 80% of this value is from commercial properties (multi-family residential, office, retail, and other)

3. 28% of the Compact Area’s property tax base sits on 4% of its land within a half-mile of Metrorail

4. The land within a half-mile of Metrorail stations generate $3.1 billion in property taxes per year for our funding partners

New York Avenue station has helped enable valuable development. Photo courtesy of NCPPP, click for context.

This does not mean that Metro caused all of this development, but it does show that Metro serves the value-creating parts of our region. Some of this development existed before Metrorail, and influenced the decision of where to build stations.  So, we ran a number of hedonic analyses (a statistical regression technique) to isolate the effect on property values uniquely from Metrorail proximity alone, or the “rail premium.”  After all, property values can be influenced by a variety of factors, including proximity to other infrastructure, desirability of the neighborhood, etc.  Controlling for all other factors, we found that within the Compact area:

1. Metrorail boosts property values, adding 6.8% more value to residential, 9.4% to multi-family, and 8.9% to commercial office properties within a half-mile of a Metrorail station – all other things being equal

2. Property becomes even more valuable as a property gets closer to Metro stations

Others have shown too that new Metrorail stations can attract and spur economic development, by tracing the history of development around stations, such as New York Avenue and the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor.

These findings show that Metro plays a significant role in our region’s land markets: not only is valuable development and economic activity clustered around Metrorail, but the benefits of Metrorail can be seen in actual property assessments.  Our regions’ land markets recognize and have responded to the value that Metro brings.  This helps make the case that Metro is vital to the region’s economy, and is a good investment of public funds.

Read the study’s Final Report (pdf).

Cross-posted at PlanItMetro